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Panowie dzis jestem z wami, ATL 1etap, MIl 1etap, OAK over i Pitt 1 etap, zobaczymy ktore druzyny sie przelamia, oby jak najwiecej
Dobranoc

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Niewiele braklo do overa

Tak w oogle to widze, ze nikt nie skomentowal osatniego wystepu Clemensa
Rzucal 5 inningow, 2 runs i 5 hits.
Moze w nastepnym starcie edzie lepiej

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It will be a couple of weeks before Roger Clemens makes his 2006 debut back in an Astro uniform - they are projecting a June 22 start vs. the Twins at Minute Maid Park. But since there has already been some buzz in the betting markets, and we have already had to field so many requests for either odds adjustments or slants, let's break down what we expect to happen right now.

And what should happen is "very little" in terms of the pennant races.

Here is the crux of the matter - at best, Houston can project Clemens for 17 starts the remainder of the season. That is not much opportunity for even a great pitcher to make a difference, and given that he will be 44 years old for most of those starts (his birthday is August 6), "great" should not be an assumption at this point. Although he has been among the true marvels in sports history at maintaining physical conditioning, that was not the case this past off-season. The very fact that he will not pitch at a Major League level for at least three weeks tells us much about that, and it may not be on June 22 that he is really Roger Clemens, but a few more starts down the line.

Now time to get practical with the numbers. An outstanding performance by a pitcher over a 17-game stretch would be for his team to go 11-6. A 10-7 would be considered very good, and even a 9-8 would be almost enough for a team to earn a Wild Card spot if they played all season at that rate (it projects to 86-76 over a full schedule). Under the circumstances, the most likely projection for Clemens would be the latter two categories, given the offensive support that he will have behind him (which is absolutely nothing special). Let's remember that as brilliantly as he pitched in 2005, with a spectacular 1.87 ERA, the Astros only went 16-16 in those games. Yes, there was some bad luck involved, but that can happen when a team is 10th in the N.L. in runs scored. This year's offense happens to be 11th.

Now for Part II. The games started by Clemens are not somehow rescued from a vacuum. Houston was going to play all 17 anyway, and would likely have sent either Fernando Nieve or Taylor Buccholz to the mound. And the flip side of our table can come into play. An awful performance by those two would mean going 6-11 in those games; a poor one 7-10. So in this regard we see that the swing is not a huge one. And given that they are 9-8 so far when Nieve or Buccholz have started, albeit playing a bit to the lucky side in those games, there is a base that has already been set. And there is even more, from the standpoint of pure logic.

Clemens averaged 6.2 innings per start LY. It is not reasonable to project that this season, so we have to consider a 6.0 to be the high point. That must be kept in mind when we factor the gap between him and whomever else the #5 starter would be, and it is reasonable to believe that the other #5 would also average around six innings per start. That means that what might appear to be a significant gap in ERA is not so pronounced - the actual allowance gets reduced by about one-third per game, because of the innings pitched. There may not even be 100 innings of work for this comparison to take place.

And then, of course, there is the age factor that could render all of this moot. Remember that as brilliant as his 2005 statistics were, his ERA after the All Star break was nearly one full run higher than prior; and he was 1-2/5.40 in September. Because of the late start this season he may not run into fatigue near the end of the campaign like he did LY, but at the same time he may never find his rhythm in the first place.

The bottom line? Clemens might be worth 4-6 games in the standings, max. It may turn out to be less than that, and it is possible that he will not be much of a factor at all in terms of overall wins and losses. But it still may be a savvy move by the Houston administration - for a team floundering around .500, and likely to be anchored near that level for most of the season, the Clemens contract may pay for itself at the turnstiles in an otherwise lackluster summer.

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ATL LLLLLLLLLL 10xL, gram ML ATL 1.70 (4p)
PIT LLLLLLLL 8xL, gram ML PIT 2.14 (3p)
OAK(bez O od 5 meczy) vs SF(bez O od 4 meczy), gram o7.5 2.04

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ATL po 10 kolejnych porazkach odniosla zwyciestwo
PIT 9xL dzis bedzie 4poziom
OAK 6mecz bez O, SF 5 bez O,