HOW TO BET PRO BASKETBALL?

By Stephen Nover (handicapper with Covers Expert)


It doesn’t matter that the NBA is the hardest sport to beat next to the NFL. Nor does it matter that NBA lines are extremely sharp, or that some of the players in the league are among the most detestable in all sports.

We’re still going to bet NBA. So let’s at least try to make some money from it. To accomplish this we need to be aware of certain harsh realities.

Basketball is an eight-month grind similar to baseball. That means riding hot streaks and dealing with cold streaks. Money management is as important as handicapping.

Bet a little more when winning, but don’t ever let yourself get too cocky. This is a sport that slaps you down to size real fast by nature of its randomness and garbage-type finishes that often decide the point spread winner. If you’re losing you need to scale down your action until you regain your rhythm.

For the NBA is a rhythm sport. The lines almost always seem accurate. So face it, you’re rarely going to get value. Sometimes you will, but it’s usually just during the first couple of weeks. If you refuse to play unless you get a great number, you’re going to be sitting out a lot.

So don’t be afraid to get involved. Now, I’m not saying be undisciplined. No matter how much you like a side, you have to pass if the line is too out of whack. Rare is the time when you really love a side and are able to also take a great number on the same game. You’ll get bit a few times, losing by a point or two, but in the long run you’ll make more money provided you handicap right and play the game even if the betting line isn’t entirely to your liking.

Some gamblers disagree, saying you should never play unless you’re getting the best number. That’s fine in theory, but hard to apply in the NBA since a large part of handicapping pro basketball is situations, injuries, matchups and your own subjective feel rather than power rankings, statistics and coaching.

Basketball is a hard sport to get rich on. I’ve beaten the NBA five of the past six years hitting between 54 and 58 percent. Perhaps that doesn’t sound spectacular, but it’s solid profit taking into account there are 30 teams playing 82 games followed by the postseason. I would dare call a liar anybody who claims to consistently hit better than 60 percent over the long run playing a lot of games each season.

Having the right feel in the NBA is huge. The key question, of course, is how to acquire the right feel? It’s developed through experience, watching the games, analyzing players, understanding situational aspects, reading pertinent up-to-date material and talking to sources if you’re lucky enough to have good ones. And in the end, it comes down to trusting your own instincts.

Unless your whole life has been devoted to handicapping NBA, you have to make certain concessions. For instance, I don’t spend a lot of time pouring over statistics and compiling power rankings. These are factored into the betting line anyways.

The oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants - the company that supplies the betting numbers to most of the hotels in Nevada - use power rankings to make numbers as other linesmakers do. I do make overnight numbers and compare them. But the oddsmakers’ numbers are solid and need to be respected. There’s no reason to try to improve on their time-tested numbers.

Betting totals is something else altogether. There are individuals and betting syndicates who are extremely proficient in this area. Las Vegas bookmakers were plagued for many years by one especially sharp individual in this area.

Bookmakers adjust totals much faster than sides. It’s my experience gamblers are either very good or very bad at over/unders with most having no clue how to beat totals. Over/unders are hard to get involved with unless you thoroughly understand what you’re doing. It’s difficult for both oddsmakers and bettors, for instance, to accurately gauge a total when a fast-paced team matches up against a half-court opponent.

If a team is playing its fifth game in seven days you figure that team is at a huge disadvantage physically and mentally. That’s easy to handicap playing a side. But when betting a total, would you know if that’s an advantage (tired arms making for poor shooting percentage) or a disadvantage (too tired to play intense defense)?

For reasons like that I find sides much easier to handicap. The business aspect is what makes the NBA so much a crapshoot when handicapping. The players make so much money and have so many games that you’re not always assured of getting a top effort from them. That’s not a concern in college because players usually play hard all the time. The NBA is more a marathon with players pacing themselves, picking their spots.

It’s rare to find a team, for instance, playing well every game during a long road trip. The secret is to project when they’ll tank and when they’ll be on. Beating the NBA is difficult because you’re at the mercy of the different mood swings of various key players who can be just out of high school, have a ghetto background or have a name you can’t pronounce because they’re from somewhere halfway around the world.

Sometimes the point spread is decided in the final minute. Even though the outcome is evident, a point spread could be decided by a meaningless uncontested lay-up, an undefended jump shot or if the losing team decides to foul or not. It’s not nearly as bad as what occurs in college, when a hopelessly losing team keeps needlessly fouling, allowing the winner to cover a big spread and pushing the total over.

But often times the line is so solid that the game falls in the mix, where it could go either way from a point spread standpoint no matter how well or poorly you handicapped. I remember losing with an 8-point underdog a few years ago when the favorite had a 7-point lead with just seconds left and the ball. The underdog wasn’t going to foul, instead they started shaking hands and walking off the court.

Now when that happens, you can almost start counting your money because the winning team is just going to dribble out the last few seconds, especially when they were at half-court, as in this instance. However, in this particular case, the notoriously selfish J.R. Rider had the ball and sensing an easy way to pad his stats, made a mad dash for the open hoop dunking the ball with a second left. The announcers criticized Rider for being bush, as did other players, but the bottom line was the final score was a 9-point margin costing me a wager.

Always accept that a certain amount of games fall into the mix. The way to beat the NBA is to nail the games that don’t fall into the mix more often than not. Use proper money management and know how to take advantage of injury information.

Just because Chris Webber is out doesn’t necessarily mean the 76ers are a bad bet for that evening. It helps to know the players and backups so well you can correctly assess if the bookmaker made a correct line adjustment on an injury. Sometimes they over-adjust. I’ve played in Rotisserie leagues with deep rosters (12 teams composed of 15 players) for years to keep sharp on players. I’d recommend it.

Because of the long season, there will be short windows of opportunities to take advantage of inside knowledge such as a key player unexpectedly not being in the lineup either through injury, suspension or other personal reasons. The biggest NBA bet I ever won came a couple of years ago when 30 minutes before tip-off I received a call from a source saying Steve Francis wouldn’t play.

The books got that same information a few minutes before tip-off, but in that short interval before the house found out, I was able to bet against Francis’ team, which happened to be the Rockets at the time, while also betting the under. Both wagers easily won.

These kinds of dream spots don’t crop up too often, but they can prove profitable when they do. The bottom line with beating the NBA is to keep plugging; exploit hot streaks; take advantage of rare inside information when it appears; lay low during cold spells; and respect how tough it is to make a huge profit wagering on the sport. Keep things in perspective. The NBA can be beat, but not if you’re impatient and greedy.

Value Can Be Found In NBA Totals
by Jeremy Martin

The NBA has long been known as one of the hardest sports for bettors to win money at. Since rosters are small and there are a manageable number of teams in the league, bookmakers have been releasing increasingly solid numbers year after year. It's no secret that pro hoops is consistently one of the top money makers for the sportsbooks.

Even though the books make a good profit by taking NBA action, most managers will admit that they have one weak spot: NBA 'totals.' In fact, these managers will readily admit that they lose money every season booking NBA totals. While they make a killing with 'sides,' which are popular with the general betting public, totals continue to be problem because they are a favorite of the professional bettors.

"I am not saying every single game or every single circumstance, but over time there are definitely more weak totals numbers (in the NBA) than side numbers," said Doug Beil, race & sportsbook manager for Terrible's Hotel/Casino, who added that totals make up only 20 percent of his NBA handle. "The people who bet and handicap totals just spend more time and are better at it than maybe the casinos and the odds services are willing to admit."

Most sportsbook managers will agree that totals action makes up a small percentage of their total NBA handle. This can bee seen as a positive for the average bettor who is looking to gain an advantage in pro hoops. As long as the general public continues to stay away from totals, the books will continue to take the small losses in that area as long as they continue to profit on sides.

"Sides get a lot more action (about triple)," said Rob Gillespie, president of BoDog Sportsbook & Casino. "For most bettors it is easier to handicap teams than totals. They know the players, they know the recent results, but knowing how a team does relative to the over/under requires more information than you can get from a mainstream sports site like ESPN or the USA Today."

While the numbers for sides are relatively stable, the numbers for totals tend to move more frequently. This instability is great for bettors, who can find a wide range of numbers on a particular game while gaining a chance to 'middle' the books in situations where a game's line moves several points. According to Bob Scucci, race & sportsbook manager for the Stardust Resort & Casino, totals lines can move up to nine points.

"NBA totals is one of the easiest things to win at for a bettor and one of the hardest things to book as a bookmaker," he said. "There's so much volatility (in NBA totals). Not only do you have to pinpoint the right number to book, but if you move it a point it is not really going to deter the betting on that side. You really need to move it two points or four points (to start receiving two-way action). So sometimes you see eight or nine point moves and all that does is open yourself up to a bigger middle. "When you start dealing with numbers in the 200s, it is extremely difficult to make a solid number. The difference between a total of 212 and 216 is not that big. If you see a game move two or three points, that's a pretty big move for a side. If you see it move three points on a total, that's not even significant. They almost all move at least three points in the totals."

Even though betting on sides is a losing proposition for most, there are plenty of bettors who consistently beat the house. The NBA is the No. 3 most popular sport for most sportsbooks after pro and college football. Most bookies agree that there's a similar ratio of professionals and public bettors playing the NBA that there is in football. And just like in football - where a small percentage of the betting public comes out ahead - there are many who win money by betting sides and totals for pro hoops.

One of the biggest factors in successfully handicapping sides is paying close attention to injuries, according to Scucci.

"The majority of making lines for the NBA is knowing who is going to be starting and playing and who is not," he said. "Certain players are just so critical to the game. Every team has one key player that is worth at least three to five points. It is more a matter of who is going to be on the floor than it is just taking statistics from the previous games because you might take the last 10 games that a team has played and try to use that as a basis for a number and then realize that those last 10 games were played without (a key player). It's like handicapping two completely different teams."

One example of this is last Friday's Orlando/New Jersey game. Magic superstar Tracy McGrady was listed as a game-time decision due to an injury. While most books decided against posting a number on this game until they knew if McGrady would play or not, some released the game at Orlando +12. According to Scucci, this line would have been Orlando +10 with McGrady and +15 without him. Books who released the game at +12 were setting a number that was two or three points off regardless of the star player's status. McGrady ended up playing the game and the Magic lost by more than 20, but in situations like this some books expose themselves by posting soft lines.

Public teams are also a factor in betting the NBA, as they are with college and pro football, and most of the major team sports. The Lakers are the biggest of the public teams and the books tend to shade them or add extra points to the line in order to draw action to the opposing team, especially in nationally televised games. Teams that are hot also tend to be shaded.

"The NBA is streaky," said Scucci. "Sometimes teams go on eight or 10-game winning streaks. You will see a little more shading when teams are running hot and playing well. Sometimes (teams) will go into a little bit of a skid and they are not playing well so there is some shading going on in the lines."

"The Lakers are the biggest public team in recent years and their woes this season have been well documented and they sit 26th (against the spread)," added Gillespie. "Memphis is a team that has been on the opposite spectrum (bettors have liked to go against them) and they are in the playoff race and have the 4th best record ATS. I think bettors are learning to look at each game in more detail and not just bet the favorites or against the perennial cellar dwellers."

Online Sports Betting Odds on the NBA

One can find terrific value with online sports betting odds on the NBA, especially long term value. Future props are very popular with today's bettors and it is not necessary to only try your luck at choosing a winner of the NBA Finals when there are betting odds up for winners of individual divisions as well.

Wall Street Sportsbook offers online sports betting odds on each of the six NBA divisions and you might be surprised at the value found here.

In the Atlantic Division we have the New Jersey Nets with +1200 odds to win, yet none of the teams look promising and at the time of publication, Jason Kidd was starting to breathe new life into the team. With a 7-13 record, they were only 3 games behind the 10-10 New York Knicks. New Jersey could conceivably win the Atlantic Division. As such, a $100 bet on New Jersey at Wall Street Sportsbook would yield a $1200 profit.

Another worthwhile bet might be to throw $100 down on the Washington Wizards, a team looking strong during the first month and a half of this season. Online sports betting odds here are +800 at Wall Street Sportsbook, meaning $100 will win $800. At press time they were only one game behind Miami and won more games than any other team in the Eastern Conference over the past ten game stretch. Definite value here if you dare.

Looking at the Western Conference we don't see much value where online sports betting odds on the NBA is concerned. Denver, with +1400 pay out odds, could conceivably forge ahead. But Seattle looks way too strong early on and Minnesota is still the favorite to win this division. Both offer unattractive odds.

Likewise, Phoenix and Sacramento should win in their respective division with online sports betting odds that offer little in the way of value.

Memphis in the Southwest Division is not going to garner any steam if their key players keep partying with local floozies until the wee hours of the morning, as witnessed this past Friday in Miami. The top two teams, San Antonio and Dallas feature unappealing sports betting pay out odds, although Dallas with +450 is still the best option in this conference.

Our choices for a $100 bet on future odds for their respective divisions: New Jersey Nets in the Atlantic Division with current +1200 odds and Washington with +800 in the Southeast Division.

You can bet both of these. Keep in mind that the odds listed above will change from time to time. Good luck.

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